NL East race comes down to the Mets and Braves and avoiding blown saves
Team OPS, team ERA, or even team average of runners on goal may not be the most important factor in the Mets and Braves NL East title fight. No, a missed save could end up being worth it all…or the lack of it.
With little difference between the clubs in the table, the closers have performed very differently in terms of saves and failed saves, with Braves goalkeeper Kenley Jansen scoring his 33 saves to put him first in the NL. is. Mets closer Edwin Diaz is 29. But it’s not just closers.
He held a 1.5-game lead against the Braves when the Mets entered the game on Monday. After the Braves stunned the Mariners on Sunday with five runs in the top of the ninth and one late in the inning, it seemed the half-game advantage might linger for a while. However, the game ended 7-7 when rookie star Julio Rodriguez crushed Jansen’s hanging slider into the left field wall. The two batters won 8–7 after Eugenio Suarez hit Jansen’s fastball over the left-center wall. In recent memory, he’s nine times more troublesome.
The loss to Atlanta was Jansen’s seventh failed save of 2022, one less than his 2019 best-of-eight with the Dodgers. It was also Jansen’s third unsuccessful rescue attempt in his seven so far. More importantly, the Braves’ loss was due to Jansen missing his sixth save of the year. The important number to look at is this.
So his save for Jansen’s five innings that resulted in the loss was tremendous as the Braves trailed the Mets by just 1.5 games behind him. In contrast, the closer Diaz of the Mets, with only one missed save that year, resulted in a loss. This reveals his second key stat to watch: Savings Percentage.
The Braves have gone 5-2 in Jansen’s final seven saves in his chances, but his two losses, a walk-off walk against the Cardinals and a critical comeback/disappointment on Sunday against the Mariners, have been particularly painful. , contributed to the very dirty trend of the innings. to Janssen. In 15 games since August 1, Jansen has kept a clean sheet in just four innings.
Again, the number of unsaved times doesn’t always matter. Even Mariano Rivera, the greatest goaltender of all time, has missed at least his seven saves in three of his seasons. Avoiding conclusions and bad habits is more important.
Unfortunately for the Braves, all of these benchmarks have proved difficult for Jansen in 2022 and may play a significant role in the division race’s result, as well as the choice between a first-round bye and a three-game wild-card series that could go either way.
